Many of us are baffled and confused as to what really caused the present financial crisis, so I turned to Jeff Cook, one of the Senior Account Managers at Metro Sunset Mortgage for some enlightenment. Here is an article that he wrote today and published on the web. I copied the entire thing and dropped it in here, because he does a better job explaining things than I can.
An In Depth Look
My clients, co-workers, referral partners, family and friends are all asking “what the heck is going on?” And it’s truly a question I am getting hourly. Here’s an in-depth look at some of the cause of the current situation we are in so you have an overview.
We ALL are learning more and more about our economy and how it “really works” daily.
Whatever the political posturing, a plan needs to be passed – and passed soon. Credit markets are frozen and banks are going bust every day. This is not totally because of so-called “toxic” mortgages as the media has portrayed. This has a lot to do with new legislation and rules passed last year by the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) with the SEC’s elimination of the uptick rule for Wall Street and the FASB’s 157 ruling, also known as “mark to market”.Uptick rule: The uptick rule was a securities trading rule used to regulate short selling in financial markets. The SEC eliminated the uptick on July 6, 2007 causing short-selling to be at record levels by early 2008 and wild swings of the markets. The problem with the elimination of the uptick rule is that without it, short sellers were devaluing perfectly solid stocks. On September 19, 2008 the SCE halted short-sales temporarily of 799 financial stocks.
FASB 157: http://www.fasb.org/st/summary/stsum157.shtml Each day lenders must mark their assets to the marketplace. It’s like you having to appraise your home everyday and if your neighbor was under duress because they got very ill, divorced, lost their job and was forced to sell their home quickly they may have sold it super cheap. Now, does that mean your house is worth that super cheap price? Clearly not. Why? Because you are not under duress. You have the time to sell your home and get a more normal price, which more accurately reflects true market conditions. But “mark to market” does not allow for this, which creates a vicious cycle.
Why is this so bad? Because as lenders mark down their assets the amount that they have loaned previously becomes much riskier in relation to their assets. For example, say a bank has $1 million in assets and say they have $15 million in loans outstanding. Their ratio is an acceptable 15 to 1. But should they take a paper write down of $500 thousand due to “mark to market” requirements, their ratio suddenly changes to 30 to 1. This is because their assets are now only $500 thousand after taking the paper loss, while their loans outstanding are $15 million. And at 30 to 1 this bank is viewed as a risky investment. So the stock price starts to get hit, it becomes harder to borrow, and most importantly harder to make money. The bank is then forced to sell some of its loans to reduce its ratio…at cheap prices. And this makes the vicious cycle continue. And a quick look at the holdings of these loans show that 95% are problem free. Additionally, the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) that are used with the pools of mortgages, are relatively safe. But this requires a bit of understanding. You see, when a pool of mortgage loans is put together it isn’t just A paper or B paper etc. it’s everything. Its got some A paper, B paper, C paper, and even what looks like toilet paper. An “A” investor buys the whole pool but because they are an “A” investor their safety is greater because they can avoid the first 20% (an example) of defaults. So they own the whole pool but are sheltered from the first batch of defaults, and for this they get the lowest rate of return. As you can figure from here the more risk investors want to take, the higher the return. So the investments are relatively safe, but the accounting rules currently place undue pressure on the banking institutions.
Now add to all this the opportunistic shorting that was done, while the uptick rule was eliminated, on the financial stocks, much of it illegal because those shorts did not legitimately borrow shares (called naked shorting), and you exacerbate this whole problem.Thank goodness for the recent temporary ban on shorting in the financial sector mentioned above.
As for the plan the government is the only one who can step in to do this. And they have to do this. And they will do this. The nauseating political posture from both sides is just part of the process – and it is never, ever pretty.
This is not easy to understand for the general public. In fact most politicians don’t get this either. That’s why it is a difficult yet critical bill for them to vote on. Once this bill is done it will take some time but the markets will stabilize. Rates will remain attractive and the influx of credit availability will help the housing market gradually improve. This ultimately will be the medicine needed to fix our industry. We just need to be patient.
I hope that you found this ecomonic information helpful and informative – as it’s important to me that my clients, referral partners, family and friends are kept up-to-date and in-the-know! If you have any questions whatsoever, let me know.
Make it a great day!
If you have any questions or comments on the above article, please don’t hesitate to contact me at robert@lacarealestate.biz, or leave feedback here on the blog.
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